Решением Высшего Совета по науке и технологическому развитию Академии наук Молдовы и Национального Совета по аккредитации и аттестации журнал «Право и политология» признан как издание в области права и политологии, относящееся к научным журналам категории «Б» (решение № 151 от 21 июля 2014 года).
Журнал «Право и политология» является международным изданием научных партнеров
ИНСТИТУТ ЮРИДИЧЕСКИХ И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ
АКАДЕМИИ НАУК МОЛДОВЫ
ГЕЛАТСКАЯ АКАДЕМИЯ НАУК (ГРУЗИЯ)
ВЫСШАЯ ШКОЛА ПО БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ И ЭКОНОМИКИ (БОЛГАРИЯ)
МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ЦЕНТР ПОЛИТИКО-ПРАВОВЫХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ
ПРАВО И ПОЛИТОЛОГИЯ / страница:
Ivan GALABOV (Bulgaria),
M.Sc., LPBSCR at the ANIS
M.Sc., LPBSCR at the ANIS
“STATE OF THE ART” OF RESEARCH RELATED TO AZERBAIJAN'S ROLE IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY SECURITY, IN PARTICULAR - IN NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES
Summary. This report examines the current state of research concerning Azerbaijan’s role in the field of energy security, particularly its contribution to the supply of natural gas to the countries of Southeastern and Southern Europe, as well as its position as a global supplier of crude oil. The study presents a comprehensive bibliography on the subject, focusing primarily on publications issued during the period 2020–2025. Special attention is given to the significant geopolitical and geo-economic changes that have occurred following the escalation of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 and their impact on assessments of Azerbaijan’s role in regional and global energy markets.
Keywords: oil pipelines, gas pipelines, Baku, Tbilisi, Ceyhan, Supsa, Southern Gas Corridor, SCP, TANAP, TAP, physical security, hybrid attacks, engineering infrastructure
This text is part of a significantly larger and broader research project, carried out within the framework of the work of the Laboratory on the Problems of the Black Sea and Caspian Region (LPBSCR) at the Academy of National and Information Security - ANIS (in the near past - Higher School of Security and Economics - HSSE).
The presented bibliography covers mainly the period 2020-2025, although attention is also paid to older publications. Throughout all these years, international scientific interest in the problems of the Southern Gas Corridor and the so-called "Middle Transport Corridor" ("Transcaspian International Transport Corridor") has remained at a high level. It should be noted here that the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine in February 2022, rendered meaningless a large part of the analytical materials, especially those published in 2016-2018, when writing which the authors, through no fault of their own, worked from starting positions that are completely different from today's geopolitical reality.
For understandable reasons, considerable attention has been paid to Russian-language literature, taking into account the fact that Russia is certainly extremely interested in the processes taking place in the Caspian region and the South Caucasus: in the field of diversification of energy supplies; in the field of overcoming contradictions between the countries of the Caspian Sea basin, especially along the Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan and Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan axes; in the field of expanding cooperation between the former Soviet republics in the use of the Caspian Sea shelf for hydrocarbon extraction; the creation of new strategic routes for the transmission of energy carriers and electricity, and so on [1, p 172].
Russian researchers are clearly aware of the role of the Southern Gas Corridor as a tool for diversifying natural gas imports into the EU; they are keenly interested in assessing Turkey’s ability to provide a transit gas corridor; they understand the place of the Southern Gas Corridor in the EU’s energy strategy; they reflect on the risks that arise when there is a “touch” between the interests of the countries of the “Eurasian Space” and Turkish energy projects. Naturally, in the spirit of the Russian (and Soviet) tradition, detailed analyses of the place of the Transcaucasus in the policies of countries such as Turkey, the USA and Canada are made. Russian-Bulgarian relations in their energy aspect have not been overlooked, and the creation of new logistics nodes for natural gas trade in South-Eastern Europe is also being monitored.
In turn, Azerbaijani researchers, as well as researchers of Azerbaijani origin working in the Russian Federation, consistently work on the legal assessment of cooperation between Azerbaijan and the EU in the energy sphere and ensuring the energy security of Europe; on the assessment of the potential of the Azerbaijani gas industry; on the current state of energy security in Azerbaijan; on the capabilities of the Caspian region as a whole, as a supplier of natural gas to Europe; on the development of Azerbaijan's relations with the European countries through which the Southern Gas Corridor passes, especially Italy; on the problems of implementing the concept of the Southern Gas Corridor and, more precisely, on the problems of increasing supplies to the EU countries [2, p. 273].
Russian researchers are working on clarifying the energy component of security in the South Caucasus; they pay special attention to the various manifestations of Turkey's policy - from the Western Balkans to the Caspian region; they analyze the policy of various countries involved in the transport of energy carriers, reflected in public debates in various European countries; they also carefully analyze the direct relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union, as well as the EU's policy in the Caspian region as a whole.
Russian researchers do not fail to address the dimensions of Azerbaijan’s energy security as the flagship of Caspian participation in the energy diversification of Southeastern and Southern Europe, as well as the foreign policy strategy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the conditions of geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus. They recognize that the geopolitics of energy infrastructure in the Caspian region is dynamically changing and try to assess Russia’s prospects in the new geopolitical order taking shape in the South Caucasus and the Caspian region [3, p. 4].
It can be summarized that no detail of the situation in the South Caucasus, the Caspian region, Turkey or along the route of the Southern Gas Corridor has remained beyond the scope of attention of Russian researchers. We can have no doubt that the huge volume of research activity, in which a number of Armenian scientists are also involved - from Armenia or from the diaspora, is widely used in the work of Russian special services and the relevant state analytical centers [4, p. 7].
Without going into great detail, it can be emphasized that a negative attitude “on a scientific basis” towards the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and especially towards the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, considered a very important supplier of natural gas to be transported via the SGC, was expressed as early as 2012. At that time, Ionova defined the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline as a “factor of instability in the Caspian region”. Another question is in what way, and to what extent, Russia can influence the ongoing processes along the Caspian – Southeastern and Southern Europe axis.
In Bulgaria, undoubtedly one of the research centers where intensive work is being done on monitoring and analyzing the situation in the South Caucasus and Central Asia is the Laboratory on the Problems of the Black Sea and Caspian Region (LPBSCR) at ANIS. In the focus of the research work of the Laboratory are:the potential of Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia (mostly Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan), as well as their practical actions for the diversification of supplies to the energy market in the EU countries; Azerbaijani expansion of the gas markets in Southeastern and Southern Europe, as well as the influence of the European Union's "soft power" on the domestic and foreign policy of Azerbaijan; the current geopolitical and geoeconomic dimensions of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict; the geopolitical positioning and place on the energy map of Azerbaijan [5, p. 32].
The Laboratory also works very seriously on the problems of the so-called "historical" or generational collective trauma. Historical trauma has been studied as a concept and phenomenon of great importance for the behavior of large masses of people and entire societies [35], and comparisons have been made between the manifestations of similar generational collective trauma among Bulgarians and Azerbaijanis.
Of course, there are other researchers who have devoted time and effort to work on the topic of the South Caucasus and the Caspian region, either independently or in cooperation with the Laboratory (LPBSCR) at ANIS. Some of the works of such authors are the result of fieldwork in Azerbaijan, and are mainly devoted to the trade and economic relations between Bulgaria and Azerbaijan.
Geoeconomic realities and changes in the geopolitical landscape, even before the final escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, are forcing Western researchers to work in depth on the energy securitization of Europe, as well as on the geopolitical vision of the free world for the Southern Gas Corridor. These analyses are carried out in parallel with the assessment of power in EU-Russia relations and with the understanding of the interaction between markets and geopolitics, including in the light of the already escalated military actions in Ukraine.
Western researchers pay very serious attention to the Southern Gas Corridor itself. The second phase of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is specifically analyzed as part of the European infrastructure and a factor in the EU's energy security; the SGC is also analyzed as part of international energy networks, as a combination of resources, vision and engineering infrastructure; the Southern Gas Corridor is also considered as a field of collision of various geoeconomic and geopolitical coalitions. Western researchers also carefully analyze the possible roles of Azerbaijan in the implementation of the second phase of the Southern Gas Corridor – SGC [6, p. 32].
The SGC has also been the subject of a number of scientific publications devoted to specific problems of the operation of this mega-facility. Here we will mention, for example, the analysis of global navigation satellite system data collected along the Southern Gas Corridor and the assessment of expected displacements and deformations.
Important issues, such as the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, which underpin the sharp increase in the quantities of natural gas that could be delivered via the Southern Gas Corridor and from there – underpin the sharp increase in the geo-economic weight of the corridor and Azerbaijan – are even being considered jointly by Western scientists and scientists from the Eurasian space. Similarly, there are publications with “mixed authorship” about trade corridors in the Caspian region.
By the way, the growth of the role of the Southern Gas Corridor is always considered in its synergistic relationship with the "Middle Corridor" - the "Trans-Caspian International Transport Route", whose role has grown enormously since February 2022.
In the period 2021-2023, we also witness the publication of important studies that examine the evolution of the place of the Southern Gas Corridor in the European energy agenda; the geopolitics, infrastructure aspects and assessment of the scale of the SGC; the relations between Europe's energy security and Caspian gas; the geoeconomics of EU energy trade in the context of the Southern Gas Corridor case; the new realities and opportunities facing the SGC, which have arisen after the dramatic change in circumstances after February 2022; the possibility of forming coalitions for the export of natural gas along the Southern Gas Corridor to Europe in the context of game theory [7, p. 12].
Bibliography:
1. Юнусова С. Южный газовый коридор как фактор энергетической безопасности Европы. – Баку: Elm və Təhsil, 2021. – 198 с.
2. Cornell S. E., Starr Frederick S. (eds.). The New Connectivity of Eurasia: Transport Corridors and Geopolitics. – Washington, DC: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2023. – 420 p.
3. Socor V. Azerbaijan’s Expanding Gas Supplies to Europe // Eurasia Daily Monitor. – Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, 2022. – Vol. 19, Issue 142. – P. 1–6. – 6 p.
4. Kardas S. The Southern Gas Corridor after 2022: New Prospects for Azerbaijani Gas // OSW Commentary. – Warsaw: Centre for Eastern Studies, 2023. – No. 500. – 12 p.
5. International Energy Agency. Azerbaijan Energy Profile. – Paris: IEA, 2023. – 45 p.
6. BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2023. – London: BP plc, 2023. – 69 p.
7. Taghizade Z. Azerbaijan and European Energy Security in the Post-Ukraine War Period // Caucasus International. – 2023. – Vol. 13, No. 2. – P. 45–60. – 16 p.
8. Euractiv Research. The EU-Azerbaijan Energy Partnership after 2022. – Brussels: Euractiv, 2024. – 18 p.
Иван ГАЛАБОВ (Болгария),
магистр наук (M.Sc.), Лаборатория по проблемам
Черноморского и Каспийского региона (LPBSCR) при ANIS
galabovivan78@abv.bg
СОВРЕМЕННОЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ, ПОСВЯЩЁННЫХ РОЛИ АЗЕРБАЙДЖАНА В СФЕРЕ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ, В ЧАСТНОСТИ — В ПОСТАВКАХ ПРИРОДНОГО ГАЗА
Резюме. В докладе рассматривается «современное состояние» исследований, связанных с ролью Азербайджана в сфере энергетической безопасности, в частности, в поставках природного газа в страны Юго-Восточной и Южной Европы и его ролью как глобального поставщика сырой нефти. Представлена подробная библиография по данной теме, в основном посвященная публикациям, вышедшим в период 2020-2025 годов, с учетом резких изменений геополитической и геоэкономической ситуации после эскалации войны на Украине в феврале 2022 года.
Ключевые слова: нефтепроводы, газопроводы, Баку, Тбилиси, Джейхан, Супса, Южный газовый коридор, SCP, TANAP, TAP, физическая безопасность, гибридные атаки, инженерная инфраструктура